Government continues its drama of refusing to acknowledge the economic realities; up to now, the official machinery is engaged in a counter-attack on UPA and its ministers
PRABHAKAR TIMBLE
At no time in the history of independent India, except the infamous two years when Mrs Indira Gandhi clamped the national emergency, a critical evaluation of the state of the economy was viewed as a national crime. Those were the sordid days of usurpation of fundamental rights by the State and even the courts refused to interfere to restore rights and liberties. Academicians and the media, leaving a few exceptions, were singing the praise of the 20-point economic programme of the government describing it as the New Deal for the economy. Almost the entire political opposition was jailed and dissent was butchered with the iron rod of the State. The situation is almost similar today, though there is no proclamation of official emergency. The threats emanate from the official instrumentalities and the private armies of the
ruling powers.
The government continues its drama of refusing to acknowledge the economic realities. Up to now, the official machinery is engaged in a counter-attack on UPA and its ministers. Little does the NDA government realize that this is its second term and solutions need to be found in the context of the NDA policies post-2014. The economy is now entering the stage of slow growth and high inflation, commonly referred to as stagflation. Normally, inflation spurs growth but this is a conundrum of rising prices accompanied by a decline in growth breeding unemployment and falling household consumption expenditure. We cannot rest under the alibi of a global slowdown as recessionary trends are inundating the domestic markets.
Statistics and economic data analysis seem to be the least priority of this government. Reliable official data is not forthcoming for an objective study and investigation. The surveys of independent agencies indicate an economic slowdown. The Reserve Bank of India had to revise its findings and estimates given the declining economic growth. Economists are consistently harping on falling demand and declining consumption expenditure pointing out that tax reduction and reliefs in corporate taxation will not render positive results in the short-term. These could create a better business climate for the long-term once we are successful in answering the current recessionary trends. The roots of the current malaise actually stretch out to the sudden demonetization, arbitrariness in tax administration and errors in the GST. All this, derailed the SMEs, the unorganized sector and the rural
economy.
This government has established the convention to reciprocate concerns and criticism with the choicest thrashing. The memory is ripe with expletives of the ruling dispensation to Indian Nobel laureates. As a result, silence turns out to be a national virtue. Former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had raised the flag of fear and harassment which deters industry circles to air grievances and solutions. The pointed interjection of Rahul Bajaj, Chairperson of the Bajaj group with the Home Minister at an event organized by Economic Times brought the issue of the government’s hatred for dissent to the national stage. Kiran Mazumdar Shaw, Chairperson of Bicon joined the chorus that the current rulers are unkind to constructive criticism. Instead of breaking a fresh path, the top ministers of the government attacked Bajaj for “fake narratives”. The BJP’s Information and Technology Cell chief almost likened the top industrialist to a “Congress stooge” digging out the days of ‘license raj’. The BJP spokespersons were quick to award him the title of “sickular”. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman played the card of Bajaj hurting ‘national interest’ through such utterances. Business history shows that the Bajaj family had to also incur the wrath and displeasure of the Congress for airing unpleasant
views.
This inability to handle dissent and understand criticism will prove dangerous for the economy. No doubt, Narendra Modi is extremely popular. He deserves unqualified acknowledgement as the architect of the eye-catching BJP victory of 2014 and yet again a spectacular win in 2019. But, what we see are only super ambitious economic promises with no follow-up policies to match. People are losing jobs. Key economic drivers do not fuel the desired optimism.
Despite this, on the force of the mandate, the government is engrossed in the political and cultural agenda which according to them is true nationalism. The determination to reduce Article 370 to chaff, the willpower to push through a highly controversial Citizenship Bill, the resolve to have a universal National Register of Citizens and the tenacity to forge ahead with law on religious conversions override the topmost priority that needs to be accorded to economic growth, employment
and poverty.
The slogan “Modi hai toh mumkin hai” seems to work for the agenda of cultural nationalism but falls into splinters on economic agenda. The talent deficit in the government to negotiate dissent and India’s future economic growth stands out.
