Post-poll twists and turns in Maharashtra

PRABHAKAR TIMBLE

There can be no Maharashtra without Shivaji Maharaj and no political gathering without “Jai Bhavani, Jai Shivaji” sloganeering ranting the air. Whether it is installation or fall of government and knitting or breaking of coalitions, the blessings of the Maratha Emperor are invoked by all. This time the state politicians could also grab the issue of farmer suicides to bake the political cake. In the last 50 years, no single CM could retain the seat for five years in the State. It was a foregone conclusion that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will horse around with thumping numbers creating a record of a successive term. But, a different record of arresting the BJP in the largest cash rich state was sought.

The demands of the regional coalition partner for 50:50 partnerships in spoils of office including the post of CM were offers which the BJP could not accept. It would be a collapse of the bloated image graph of the national party. Knowing the trend of the BJP to gulp down the regional parties at opportune moments, the Shiv Sena was also wise to realize that it has to fight its battle for survival in the days to come. Probably, they found that some duration of captainship of the government is vital in the political fight even if it means breaking the alliance. The election figures were on their side to stitch alternatives. It’s easy to smother Shiv Sena as the villain but Uddhav Thackeray knows best what the future has in store for the professed Army of Shivaji, the Marathi regional and Hindu political nationalist organization.

All eyes are on the state which is now brought under the central rule. It looked that the not-out batsman of the BJP, Amit Shah, reigning with a hundred per cent strike rate has all the means. They formed the government in the former Jammu & Kashmir by aligning with a totally opposite ideological partner PDP. They did not allow the JD(S)-Congress government to work in peace till it was unsettled. The Congress governments in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are still unsafe as they continue to face the threat of poaching. Despite a defeat and even without being the single largest party, they pushed the socks and donned the shoes to form the government in Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya. With partisan Governors it was their field.

The stalemate in Maharashtra is a grave setback to the BJP and a great opportunity to the combined opposition. It has never happened in Modi’s BJP that their party is called to form the government and expresses helplessness. They are otherwise known for their swift strikes on Raj Bhawan gleefully waiting for the swearing in office. Once the Shiv Sena was invited by the Governor, it was expected that NCP and Congress would file their letters of support. 

The Shiv Sena expressed its willingness and ability by withdrawing from the NDA when its lone minister in the central cabinet resigned. But, probably, the NCP and the Congress desired that the bombastic Shiv Sena understands the nuances of coalition politics. Its size got normalized to its numerical strength of 56. Knowing that they are ideological poles apart, it was necessary to do a window dressing to please the respective voter base. The Governor could have granted a reasonable time either to the SS or NCP before recommending President’s rule as it is the first priority to positively explore for formation of government and allow time for alliances to take shape. However, the Governor cannot be accused of trampling upon the Constitutional provisions as the laid down procedure was set in motion. In fact, the NCP itself exhorted the Governor to give the first opportunity to the single largest party. It means they were sure of their flock. The actual time to be provided to show numbers is a grey area. The Raj Bhawan is even now open for any coalition group. Even earlier, the office of the Governor at least game a semblance of providing opportunities to the political parties in the reckoning.

To catch a thief, set a thief is an age-old saying. Use a thorn to remove a thorn is equally well known. If BJP is a thorn for an opposition comeback, the Shiv Sena with even more rabid language than the BJP is nothing less than a prickling thorn. But it has done the work for the opposition. Despite initial confabulations what the NCP and Congress offered to the Sena is a post-dated cheque which cannot be encashed. It is no legal tender as per the office of the governor. We are back to square one working on common minimum programme

During the elections, the Congress was without a leadership face in this large state which has potential to be a game changer. Now, the party-wise figures sounded the bells of change. The moment it appeared that a SS-NCP-Congress alliance is on the cards, the right-wing fringe groups started attacking the Congress for forging such alliance throwing ideological gaps to the wings. Sonia became Italian in no time. However, the moment the Congress showed reluctance to issue letter of support to SS, Sonia was described by the same elements as an Iron Lady.

It is good that the embrace of the trio (SS-NCP-Congress) has not happened in a flash. A Common Minimum Programme will provide not only a direction for the differently ideologically positioned partners but also gain credibility to the move from their supporters. The suspense over government formation is expected to end as the leaders from the three coalition partners are to meet the Governor. At the same time, Amit Shah taking it cool is an enigma. Nitin Gadkari alerts that “anything can happen in cricket and politics. You are losing the match but the result can be opposite”. If the unpredictable Sharad Pawar walks the talk, the big state would have a non-BJP government sending signals that BJP is not 

invincible.