In the shadow of disaster

JAY JOSHI

The recent floods in Kerala seem to have generated considerable discussion about how the phenomenon of climate change can affect India. Noted ecologist Madhav Gadgil has warned that Goa might also face similar fate as that of Kerala. While Gadgil pointed towards the loss of vegetation and biodiversity in the Western Ghats, many other factors are in play which should raise the alarm bells for the state. One of them is the melting of polar ice caps. 

A recent study by the Goa-based National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research has indicated that the polar ice caps have been consistently melting over the past two centuries. The study reconstructed the melting of the polar ice caps between the period from 1810 to 2010. The study also examined the organic productivity from sediment samples from an Arctic fjord called Kongsfjorden in Svalbard, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean near the north pole. It was found that the speed of melting has increased, particularly after 1970. That said, other studies relating to climate change suggest that the said melting of polar ice caps can have an effect on South West Monsoon Winds which bring rainfall to India, and more importantly cover Goa. Speaking to TG Life, NCAOR scientist and incharge of Paleoceanography Dr Manish Tiwari recently spoke to TG life, and outlined how the polar melting can affect Indian monsoons. 

“Polar ice caps are an integral part of the global climate system. Melting of Arctic ice will result in two globally very significant changes. (1) Increase in the planet’s heat budget due to less reflectance of incident solar radiation from the diminishing shiny ice cover resulting in more warming and further melting. (2) Freshening of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent regions due to the melting of ice-locked freshwater reservoirs which will affect the deep water formation and the great conveyor belt of global ocean circulation, a primary mode of heat transfer between the tropics and the poles,” says Dr Tiwari. Scientists further say that  both these developments will not remain confined to the polar regions alone and will significantly push the climate of the lower latitudes to a more warmer state. 

“How the Indian monsoon will respond to warming and changes in ocean heat content in this scenario still remains an outstanding question, one that can be addressed only with the help of reliable climate model simulations,” adds Dr Tiwari. 

Data gathered over the past few decades shows that frequency of extreme rainfall events during monsoon months have increased whereas low-intensity rainfall events during the season have declined. Thus, we can say that rainfall in Goa is set to increase as the years progress. Here, one may recall how in 2009, Canacona had recorded 36 inches of rain in 24 hours. Will such instances of flash floods occur more often, is the question that looms before the state today.  

South-west monsoon circulation is a dominant annual climate phenomenon in the western coast of India including Goa. Rainfall received during the summer months in Goa have historically shown good correlation with the overall countrywide monsoon rainfall budget. Any perturbation therefore in summer monsoon circulation is bound to affect the state of Goa, says Dr Tiwari.  Being situated on the coast and in ecologically sensitive zone, Goa is vulnerable to a number of natural disaster including storms, and the state needs a strong and pragmatic disaster management plan. Speaking of disaster management plan, there is some good news and some bad news. The good news is that we do indeed have a disaster management plan. According to reports, the disaster management plan prepared in 2012-13 was updated in 2016.  However,the bad news is that it does not seem to work. Information suggests that the last mock drill for disaster management was conducted back in 2009. Further on, the loopholes in the plan on paper  were evident when the state machinery failed to issue a warning in time when cyclone  Ockhi struck in 2017.